함께 근무했던 해군 선배에게 전화가 왔다.
“현장에 가있니.., 사건이 터져서 현장에 갔을거라고 생각이 되서 전화 했다. ”
지난주 백령도 근해에서 해군 초계함 천안함이 침몰을 했고 40여명이 실종되었다.
사고가 일어나자 해군중위로 전역을 했고 동해에서 침몰한 천안함과 같은 함정에 근무했던 나에게 원인이 무엇인 것 같냐는 문의 전화가 빗발치고 만나는 사람 마다 물어보고 있다.
침몰한 천안함(PCC-772)과 같은 배, 아니 비슷한 시기에 만들어진 초계함(PCC-771)에서 1년간 근무했었다. 동해에 배치되어 있는 함정이지만 내부구조나 무기체계가 똑같다.
언론과 인테넷에 사고 원인에 대한 많은 이야기들이 오가고 있다. 그중 신빙성 있는 몇가지를 정리해보고자 한다.
1. 기뢰에 의한 사고
- 북한의 공격
사고해역은 유속이 아주 빠른 지역이다. 북한이 기뢰를 설치했다면 어떻게 설치를 했을까. 빠른 해류을 이용해 흘려 보냈을까? 잠수함을 이용해 설치를 했을까? 어는 것도 시원하게 답을 내릴수 없다. 빠른 해류를 이용해 기뢰를 흘려보냈다면 그 타겟은 천안함이 아니었을 것이다. 그곳은 군함보다 정기 여객선을 비롯한 민간 선박들이 다니는 항로이고 오히려 천안함과 같은 군함은 잘 지나다니지 않는 지역이다. 또 기뢰를 흘려 보냈다면 단 한개를 흘려 보냈을리도 없고, 다른 그랬다면 다른 피해가 나타났어야 정상이 아닐까.
- 회수되지 못했던 기뢰의 작동,
앞서 언급한 바와같이 사고 해역은 군함보다는 민간 선박들이 지나다니는 곳이다. 하루 4차례 이상 정기여객선을 비롯해… 회수 되지 못했던 기뢰가 평소에 지나다니던 선박들이 아닌 이례적으로 들어온 해군 군함, 천안함에 작동되어 폭발했을 확률은 얼마나 될까?. 서해에서 근무했던 지인은 “그게 가능하다면 여객선이 깨저도 진작 깨졌지…”라는 말을 했다.
2. 어뢰에 의한 사고
- 사건 초기부터 제기됐던 부분이 어뢰에 의한 피격설이다. 첫 보고를 했을 때도 회사에서는 “어뢰의 공격 아니냐?”라고 물었을 정도..
어뢰.. 어뢰를 쏘려면 NLL근해에서 경비중이던 북한 경비함이 어뢰를 발사 했을 것인데 함정에 있는 레이더를 비롯해 육상 레이더에서 감지되지 않았다는 것이 의문이다. 북한은 유도어뢰가 아닌 직주어뢰를 장비하고 있는 것으로 알고 있다. 함정근무시절에도 북의 직주어뢰를 회피하는 방법을 훈련하기도 했다. 북한의 어뢰는 유도어뢰가 아닌 직주어뢰를 장비하고 있는 것으로 알고 있다. 함정근무시절에도 북의 직주어뢰를 회피하는 방법을 훈련하기도 했다. 직주어뢰를 이용해 먼 거리에서 조준사격을 했을 확률이 얼마나 될 것인지 생각해 봐야 할 것 같다.. 물론 10년도 더 된 것이니 새로운 어뢰를 장비 할 수도 있었겠지만.. 유도 어뢰를 발사 했더라도. 북한의 움직임이 없었다는 것이 의문이다.
3. 잠수함에 의한 공격.
- 또 하나 생각할 수 있는 것이 잠수함으로 은밀하게 침투해 사고 해역을 지나던 천안함에 기뢰나 어뢰등을 이용해 공격을 했다는 것.. 물론 가능성이 있는 이야기이다. 그러나 과연 잠수함이 움직이는 것을 미군에서 몰랐을까.. 그것을 알고도 사고 해역 인근에서 한미 해군의 합동훈련을 실시 했을까? 라는 의문이 든다. 또한 수심이 낮아 잠수함이 활동하기 힘든 지역이며 인근에 많은 어망들이 설치되어 있어 잠수함이 활동할 수 있는 조건은 아니라고 생각한다.
4. 내부 폭발
- 위의 상황을 고려 했을 때 생각할 수 있었던 것이 내부 폭발이다. 그래서 내부 폭발이 원인이 아닐까 생각한 적도 있다. 그러나 이것도 생각을 해 봐야 한다. 기관실 쪽의 폭발이 탄약고에 연쇄반응을 유발해 폭발한다면.. 두동강이 날 수 있지만.. 실제로 두동강이가 난 곳이 아닌 더 뒤쪽이여야 할 것이다. 엄밀하게 말해 두동강이란 말보다는 함미가 ‘떨어져 나갔다’표현이 어울릴 정도로 뒤쪽이 잘렸어야 할 것이다. . 전문가들도 내부 폭발이 아닐 가능성이라고 말하고 있다.
5. 속초함의 사격
- 새떼로 추정되는 물체에 76mm함포를 5분간 사격을 했다는 내용이다. 이에 대해 의문은 백령도 인근 해상은 육근으로 치면 휴전선과 같이 항상 긴장이 높은 지역이다. 그런 곳에서 확인도 안된 물체.새떼로 추정되는 물체에 5분간이나 함포사격을 했다, 의문이 들지 않을 수 없다.
6. 왜 그곳으로 들어갔을까..?
- “왜 거기 갔답니까..?” 서해지역에서 근무한 지인들이 제일 먼저 의문을 갖는 부분이다. 왜 거기 갔을까. 섬과 섬사이 수심도 낮은 지역에.. 서해에 설치되어 있는 초계함 경비 구역도 아닌 곳에 들어 가서 사고를 당했는지가 의문이라는 것이다. 초계함들은 고성능 레이더와 긴 사정거리의 무기를 탑재하고 있기 때문에 좀더 외해에서 경비를 하고 있기 때문이다. 지금 추측할 수 있는 것은 서해상에서 한미 해군과의 훈련이 진행 됐었고.. 다음날도 훈련이 계획 되었었다면 서해의 복잡한 수로를 따라 평택항까지 출입항에 쏟아 버릴 낭비를 줄이려고 사고해역으로 갔을 것이라고 예상된다. 북한의 레이더를 피해 섬과 섬사이에서 밤을 보내려 했다는 생각이 들지만.. 왜 그곳에 갔는지는 의문이 아닐 수 없다.
생각지도 못했던 천안함의 사고로 사고 원인에 대해서 많은 가설들이 난무하고 있다. 군에 서 내놓는 정보는 아주 미미하다. 정보의 부족이 많은 가설과 논란을 낳고 있다.
어떤 가설과 논란도 침몰되어 있는 선체를 인양해 정밀한 조사가 이루어지기 전 까지는 어느 것 하나 속 시원하게 답이라고 결론을 내릴 수도 없다. 원인이 무엇이든 추가 피해가 없도록 안전하게 선체를 인양해 철저한 조사를 하고 국민들에게 숨김없이 발표를 해 한점 의혹이 없도록 해주길 해군과 군당국에게 당부를 하고 싶다.
“선배 현역에 계시고 초계함 함장을 마치신 선배가 보시기에는 원인이 머라고 생각해요..”라는 질문에.. “나도 먼지 정말 모르겠다. ”며 말을 아꼈다.
북한의 반잠수정 가능성을 모르시나요??
반잠수정은 레이더나 소나로도, 잘탐지가 안되는 소형이고, 거의 수면에 살짝잠겨서 운행하고
어뢰2발를 장비합니다.
백령도 전역 장교들고 반잠수정+어뢰설을 밀던데…
속초함이 76mm함포로 북쪽해역에 쏜게 무엇인지가 궁금하네요.
정확한 결과가 빨리 나와야 겠지요.
반잠수정이 놀기에는 서해안은 그물이 너무 많습니다.
반잠수정님께서 지적해주신 것과 같이 속초함이 무엇을 향해 함포사격을 했는지를 비롯해 정확하고 숨김없는 정보 공개가 중요합니다.
하늘곰님께서 지적해주신것과 같이 사고 해역주변에는 어망이 많이 있습니다. 잠수함과 반잠수정은 어망이 활동을 많이 제한하기때문에 반잠수정의 가능성 또한 제외했습니다.
군과 정부의 답변을 믿고 싶은데
워낙 왔다갔다하니 음모론같은 것들에 귀기울여집니다.
정보의 충실한 공개가 시급합니다.
적절한 시나리오 해설 감사
국민들에게 믿음을 주려면 숨기는 것이 있어서는 안되겠죠.. 감사합니다.
기뢰는 말도 안되고 원인은 두가지 중에 하나.
어뢰 아니면 노후화로 인한 절단.
이 두가지 중에 하나임.
펑하는 소리가 났다는 군인들의 말이 사실이라면 어뢰가 거의 확실.
러시아 핵잠수함이 캄차카에서 기관고장으로 침몰한 곳의 수심이 39m였음.
그러니 50m 가까이 되는 저기에서는 북한 잠수함이 얼마든지 활동 가능.
남해에서 북한 반잠수정이 발견되기도 했으니 못할 것이 전혀 없음.
우리는 유사시에 전쟁에 대한 대비교육이 전무한것도 문제입니다.과거 권위주의 정부에서는 안보를 정치에
악용한 의심이 있어서 무슨 소문만 들려도 국민들이 불안해 했습니다.이제는 또 너무 안일해서 문제입니다.일본이 지진에 대한 평상시 대비가 철저하듯이 우리도 국민들에게 평소에 북한의 군사전력이나 유사시 전쟁 전개상황,현대전에서의 대피요령등을 교육시킬 필요가 절대적으로 요구됩니다.또한 국민들이 대피할수 있는 주의의 대피시설이 전무하고 공산주의 국가와 대치하고 있는 현실에서 각 가정에 방독면이 필수로 없다는것도 문제입니다.꼭 전쟁이 나서가 아니라 철저한 준비는 최대한의 예방이 됩니다.그리고 평소에 국민들에게 공산주의로 부터 자유민주주의 체제를 지켜야 한다는 교육이 필요하다고 봅니다.지금은 좌파들에 의해서 국가 정체성이 많이 희석이 된것은 사실입니다.이번과 같은 죽음이 국민들이나 유가족들에게 한편으론 아픔으로 다가오지만 또 한편으론 자유대한민국을 지켜려다 죽었다는 자랑스러움도 함께 느껴야 된다고 봅니다.
서해안에 그물이 많다고 북한 반잠수정이 침투 못한다고 결론 내리는건 곤란합니다.
특수부대 하는일이 불가능을 가능케 하는일 입니다. 안되면 되게하라! 모르시나요?
북한 잠수정이나 반잠수정이 시속2km의 저속으로 소나에 탐지안되도록 은밀히 백령도 근해로 잠행 숨어있다가 어뢰를 발사하였거나 아니면 엔진소음에 반응하는 음향기뢰를 해저에 설치 천안함 엔진소리에 폭발 그 충격파로 천안함이 두동강 난것으로 보입니다.
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