지난 달 올린 포스트에서 2007년 생명표를 올린 적이 있습니다. 그런데 엊그제 2008년 생명표가 나왔더군요. 생명표는 지난번에 말씀드렸다시피 현재의 사망 수준이 지속될 경우 얼마나 더 살 수 있을지를 추정한 것입니다.
이번 생명표의 가장 큰 특징은 지난해 태어난 신생아의 기대수명이 처음으로 80세를 넘었다는 것입니다. 이 이야기를 주변 몇몇에게 했더니 다들 “노후가 무섭다”는 반응을 보이더군요.
간단한 표와 설명을 올릴 테니, 여러분들도 앞으로 평균 얼마나 살 수 있을지 & 그리고 그 시간을 어떻게 가꿔나갈지 생각해보시는 것도 좋을 듯 합니다.
1. 지난해 태어난 아이의 기대수명은 80.1년입니다. 이는 1970년보다 18.2년이 늘어난 것입니다. 기대수명은 61.9년(1970년) → 65.7년(1980년) → 70.3년(1988년) → 74.8년(1998년) → 78.6년(2005년) → 79.6년(2007년) → 80.1년(2008년) 등으로 급격히 늘고 있습니다. 경제협력개발기구(OECD) 30개 회원국 중 터키를 제외하면 증가세가 가장 빠르다고 하네요.
2. 지난해 태어난 남성 신생아의 기대수명은 76.5년이고 여성 신생아는 83.3년입니다. 남성의 기대수명은 2007년보다 0.4년 늘었고 여성의 기대수명은 0.6년 늘었습니다. 남성과 여성의 기대수명 차이는 6.8년인데 이는 2007년 6.6년보다 0.2년 늘어난 것입니다. 통계청에서는 “남녀 간 기대수명 차이는 1985년 8.4년이 정점이었으며 남성들이 건강에 신경을 쓰면서 계속 감소하는 추세였는데 지난해 2,30대 남성의 자살률이 유난히 높아 차이가 늘었다”고 하더군요.
3. 한국 남성의 기대수명은 OECD 회원국 평균보다 0.3년 길었으며 순위로 따지면 20위였습니다. 여성은 OECD 평균보다 1.5년 길어 7위였죠. 최근 들어서는 남성도 술을 줄이고, 운동을 하고 있지만 아직까지는 다른 나라에 비해 남성의
기대수명이 낮은 편입니다.
4. 시도별로 보면 서울이 81.7년으로 기대수명이 가장 길었습니다. 제주(81.4년), 경기(80.7년), 대전(80.3년), 인천(80.1년) 등이 기대수명이 긴 편인 반면 부산(78.8년), 경남 경북 강원(79년), 전남 충북(79.1년) 등은 상대적으로 기대수명이 짧았습니다. 통계청에서는 “부산 경북 경남 지역은 식습관의 문제 때문인지는 몰라도 암 발생률이 다른 지역보다 유난히 높은 편”이라고 하더군요.
5. 80세까지 생존할 확률을 한 번 살펴볼까요? 지난해 기준으로 30세 남성이 80세까지 생존할 확률은 49.2%입니다. 45세 남성은 50.3%죠. 반면 30세 여성은 72.7%, 45세 여성은 73.5%로 차이가 많이 납니다. 여기서 ‘나이가 많은 사람이 더 오래 살 확률이 높은 것은 좀 이상하다’고 생각하시는 분들도 있을 텐데요. 이건 생명표가 현재의 사망 수준이 그대로 지속된다는 가정을 하고 있기 때문입니다. 갈수록 의료기술이 발달하면서 수명이 늘어난다고 가정하면 젊은 사람들이 당연히 더 오래 살겠죠.
6. 앞으로 얼마나 더 살 수 있을지 궁금하다면 기대여명을 찾아보면 됩니다. 지난해 기준으로 할 때 △30세 남성은 평균 47.5년 △40세 남성은 37.9년 △50세 남성은 28.9년 △60세 남성은 20.5년을 더 살 것으로 예상됩니다. △30세 여성은 54.1년 △40세 여성은 여성 44.4년 △50세 여성은 34.8년 △60세 여성은 25.5년 더 살 것으로 분석됐죠.
그럼 언제부터 살아갈 날보다 살아온 날이 더 많아질까요? 생명표에 따르면 남성은 39세부터, 여성은 43세부터입니다. 저는 아직 살아갈 날이 훨씬 더 많군요!
7. 기사를 쓰면서 주변에 기대수명 80세 시대에 대해 묻자 대부분은 “끔찍하다”는 반응을 보이더군요. 건강, 금전 등의 측면에서 장수(長壽)를 감당하기 힘든 사람들이 많다는 뜻이겠죠. 지금까지는 ‘20대 후반에 취직해서 20~30년 동안 직장생활을 한 뒤 돈을 벌어 노후를 즐긴다’는 생각을 많이 해 왔습니다. 하지만 이제는 생애 사이클을 좀 다르게 설계해야 할 시점이 아닌가 싶은 생각이 드네요.
언젠가 이런 생각을 해 봤습니다. 30세에 취직을 해서 30년 동안 직장 생활을 해서 돈을 번다는 가정을 하고, 맞벌이가 아닌 상태에서 두 아이를 키운 뒤 부부가 은퇴 후 벌어놓은 돈 만으로 자녀 도움 없이 90세까지 산다고 계산해 보는 겁니다. 그러면 직장 생활 30년 동안, 180년분의 생활비를 벌어야 한다는 계산이 나옵니다. (본인과 부인의 30~90세 생활비 60년*2=120년, 여기에 2자녀의 30세까지 생활비 30*2=60년을 더하면 그렇게 되죠)
물론 이는 극단적인 가정입니다. 구조를 좀 바꿔서 맞벌이 부부가 한 자녀를 키운다고 하면 30년 동안 벌어야 할 생활비는 75년이 됩니다. 만약 노인 일자리가 많이 생겨 맞벌이 부부가 은퇴 후에도 돈을 벌 수 있다면, 재테크를
통해 여유자산을 축적해 둘 수 있다면, 자녀에게 들어가는 사교육비를 줄일 수 있다면 구조는 좀 더 달라지겠죠. 각자 노후에 대한 창의적인 생각, 치밀한 준비가 필요한 시점입니다.
|
|
# 기대여명(전체) |
남성 |
여성 |
|
0세 |
80.08 |
76.54 |
83.29 |
|
1세 |
79.38 |
75.84 |
82.59 |
|
2세 |
78.41 |
74.88 |
81.62 |
|
3세 |
77.43 |
73.9 |
80.64 |
|
4세 |
76.45 |
72.92 |
79.65 |
|
5세 |
75.46 |
71.93 |
78.66 |
|
6세 |
74.47 |
70.94 |
77.67 |
|
7세 |
73.48 |
69.95 |
76.68 |
|
8세 |
72.49 |
68.96 |
75.69 |
|
9세 |
71.5 |
67.97 |
74.7 |
|
10세 |
70.51 |
66.98 |
73.71 |
|
11세 |
69.52 |
65.99 |
72.71 |
|
12세 |
68.53 |
65 |
71.72 |
|
13세 |
67.53 |
64 |
70.73 |
|
14세 |
66.54 |
63.01 |
69.74 |
|
15세 |
65.55 |
62.02 |
68.75 |
|
16세 |
64.57 |
61.04 |
67.76 |
|
17세 |
63.59 |
60.06 |
66.77 |
|
18세 |
62.61 |
59.09 |
65.78 |
|
19세 |
61.63 |
58.11 |
64.8 |
|
20세 |
60.65 |
57.14 |
63.81 |
|
21세 |
59.67 |
56.17 |
62.83 |
|
22세 |
58.7 |
55.19 |
61.85 |
|
23세 |
57.72 |
54.23 |
60.88 |
|
24세 |
56.75 |
53.26 |
59.9 |
|
25세 |
55.79 |
52.29 |
58.93 |
|
26세 |
54.82 |
51.33 |
57.96 |
|
27세 |
53.85 |
50.37 |
56.98 |
|
28세 |
52.89 |
49.41 |
56.01 |
|
29세 |
51.92 |
48.44 |
55.04 |
|
30세 |
50.95 |
47.48 |
54.06 |
|
31세 |
49.98 |
46.52 |
53.09 |
|
32세 |
49.02 |
45.55 |
52.12 |
|
33세 |
48.05 |
44.58 |
51.15 |
|
34세 |
47.08 |
43.62 |
50.18 |
|
35세 |
46.12 |
42.67 |
49.21 |
|
36세 |
45.16 |
41.71 |
48.24 |
|
37세 |
44.2 |
40.76 |
47.27 |
|
38세 |
43.24 |
39.82 |
46.3 |
|
39세 |
42.29 |
38.87 |
45.33 |
|
40세 |
41.34 |
37.93 |
44.37 |
|
41세 |
40.4 |
37 |
43.41 |
|
42세 |
39.45 |
36.07 |
42.44 |
|
43세 |
38.52 |
35.15 |
41.49 |
|
44세 |
37.58 |
34.24 |
40.53 |
|
45세 |
36.65 |
33.33 |
39.57 |
|
46세 |
35.73 |
32.42 |
38.62 |
|
47세 |
34.81 |
31.53 |
37.67 |
|
48세 |
33.9 |
30.64 |
36.72 |
|
49세 |
32.99 |
29.77 |
35.77 |
|
50세 |
32.08 |
28.89 |
34.82 |
|
51세 |
31.18 |
28.02 |
33.88 |
|
52세 |
30.29 |
27.16 |
32.94 |
|
53세 |
29.4 |
26.31 |
32 |
|
54세 |
28.51 |
25.46 |
31.07 |
|
55세 |
27.63 |
24.62 |
30.13 |
|
56세 |
26.76 |
23.78 |
29.2 |
|
57세 |
25.89 |
22.96 |
28.28 |
|
58세 |
25.03 |
22.14 |
27.35 |
|
59세 |
24.17 |
21.33 |
26.43 |
|
60세 |
23.32 |
20.53 |
25.52 |
|
61세 |
22.48 |
19.73 |
24.61 |
|
62세 |
21.64 |
18.93 |
23.71 |
|
63세 |
20.8 |
18.14 |
22.8 |
|
64세 |
19.97 |
17.37 |
21.91 |
|
65세 |
19.15 |
16.6 |
21.02 |
|
66세 |
18.34 |
15.86 |
20.14 |
|
67세 |
17.55 |
15.12 |
19.27 |
|
68세 |
16.77 |
14.41 |
18.41 |
|
69세 |
16 |
13.71 |
17.56 |
|
70세 |
15.25 |
13.03 |
16.72 |
|
71세 |
14.52 |
12.36 |
15.9 |
|
72세 |
13.8 |
11.72 |
15.09 |
|
73세 |
13.1 |
11.09 |
14.3 |
|
74세 |
12.42 |
10.49 |
13.53 |
|
75세 |
11.75 |
9.9 |
12.78 |
|
76세 |
11.1 |
9.33 |
12.04 |
|
77세 |
10.46 |
8.77 |
11.33 |
|
78세 |
9.85 |
8.24 |
10.64 |
|
79세 |
9.26 |
7.73 |
9.98 |
|
80세 |
8.69 |
7.26 |
9.35 |
|
81세 |
8.16 |
6.81 |
8.75 |
|
82세 |
7.65 |
6.4 |
8.17 |
|
83세 |
7.16 |
6 |
7.62 |
|
84세 |
6.71 |
5.63 |
7.11 |
|
85세 |
6.29 |
5.28 |
6.64 |
|
86세 |
5.89 |
4.95 |
6.19 |
|
87세 |
5.52 |
4.65 |
5.77 |
|
88세 |
5.18 |
4.37 |
5.38 |
|
89세 |
4.86 |
4.11 |
5.02 |
|
90세 |
4.56 |
3.87 |
4.68 |
|
91세 |
4.29 |
3.65 |
4.37 |
|
92세 |
4.03 |
3.45 |
4.09 |
|
93세 |
3.8 |
3.26 |
3.82 |
|
94세 |
3.58 |
3.09 |
3.58 |
|
95세 |
3.39 |
2.93 |
3.36 |
|
96세 |
3.21 |
2.79 |
3.16 |
|
97세 |
3.04 |
2.66 |
2.97 |
|
98세 |
2.89 |
2.55 |
2.8 |
|
99세 |
2.76 |
2.44 |
2.65 |
|
100세이상 |
2.63 |
2.35 |
2.52 |
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